Whereas the cellular business in its entirety is just about assured to contract this 12 months as a consequence of an increase in retail costs brought on by rising element prices, not less than one essential section of the worldwide smartphone market is more likely to develop.I am speaking in regards to the presently Samsung-dominated foldable panorama, which could get a brand new champion in 2026… if Apple pulls off an early sufficient “iPhone Extremely” launch.
Nearly one in two foldables bought in North America this 12 months might be iPhones
Apple is not going to solely surpass however completely crush Samsung in North American foldable gross sales in 2026… in accordance with this forecast. | Picture by Counterpoint Analysis
I will be sincere with you, I am discovering it fairly exhausting to consider that the iPhone Fold (aka iPhone Extremely) can single-handedly account for 46 % of all foldable gross sales in North America in 2026 even when the gadget manages to begin transport to its earliest adopters in September or October.It is not (simply) a matter of demand, thoughts you, however whether or not or not Apple will be capable to manufacture the tens of millions of items wanted to fulfill that demand shortly sufficient. And if the preliminary launch is pushed again to November or December, the possibilities of hitting 46 % market share fall from unlikely to basically non-existent.
Big drops predicted for Samsung, Motorola, and Google
If we assume that the newest Counterpoint Analysis forecast will show correct so far as Apple’s numbers are involved (which is clearly not assured in the intervening time), meaning North America’s high three foldable distributors right this moment will all undergo large declines in 2026.
Samsung’s Galaxy Z Fold and Z Flip households might quickly lose a variety of their mass enchantment. | Picture by PhoneArena
We’re speaking an abrupt fall from 51 % to 29 % share for present high canine Samsung, a discount of Motorola’s 2025 slice of the pie nearly in half, and a slip in direction of almost full market section irrelevancy for Google.That is the Apple impact in motion for you, and these large declines are anticipated to occur regardless of Samsung and Motorola’s greatest efforts to diversify their product portfolios with an upcoming “wide-type Galaxy Z Fold variant” and a just lately unveiled book-style Razr Fold mannequin, respectively.
How spectacular will the market’s total development be?
If Counterpoint Analysis is true, very spectacular. Particularly, foldable shipments are projected to leap by a minimum of 48 % in North America in 2026 in comparison with final 12 months… except, after all, the “iPhone Extremely” finally ends up being launched later than presently anticipated by most analysts.
For those who’re questioning precisely the place the segment-leading demand for Apple’s first-ever foldable gadget may come from, the reply is seemingly a two-parter. On one hand, the Cupertino-based tech large can depend on iPhone devotees who’ve by no means even entertained the potential for shopping for a Galaxy Z Fold, Z Flip, or Motorola Razr.
Alternatively, it appears a comparatively giant variety of Z Fold, Z Flip, Razr, and Pixel Fold house owners might be satisfied to leap ship, though I consider that can tremendously depend upon how completely different the iPhone Extremely (or iPhone Fold) finally ends up trying from these present merchandise, and maybe most significantly, its retail worth.
Will Apple rule the foldable world in 2026?
As large as North America is (each as a geographical area and as a smartphone market), I am not satisfied Apple will handle to transform this predicted regional supremacy into international domination as early as this 12 months… even assuming these predictions come true.
Apple is predicted to promote a great deal of foldables all over the world in 2026, however fall in need of the section’s high place. | Picture by Counterpoint Analysis
To me, even that seems like a really optimistic state of affairs for the primary foldable iPhone, however I assume we’ll discover out in eight or 9 months if I am proper or these analysts and business pundits are higher at predicting the way forward for maybe probably the most risky of all smartphone market segments right this moment.
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Adrian, a cellular know-how fanatic because the Nokia 3310 period, has been a dynamic presence within the tech journalism discipline, contributing to Android Authority, Digital Tendencies, and Pocketnow earlier than becoming a member of PhoneArena in 2018. His experience spans throughout varied platforms, with a specific fondness for the variety of the Android ecosystem. Regardless of the challenges of balancing full-time parenthood together with his work, Adrian’s ardour for tech developments, operating, and films retains him energized. His dedication to mid-range smartphones has led to an eclectic assortment of units, saved from private chapter by his choice for ‘enough’ over ‘overpriced’.
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