Two months because the US and Israel launched a joint shock assault on Iran, negotiations seem deadlocked, as competing blockades of the Strait of Hormuz proceed to disrupt world vitality provides, and the way forward for Iran’s nuclear programme stays unresolved.
In an indication of the persevering with standoff, White Home spokesperson Anna Kelly on Tuesday mentioned the US was nonetheless partaking with Iran on negotiations however would “not be rushed into making a nasty deal”, a day after US President Donald Trump and his prime safety advisers mentioned a brand new Iranian proposal on resolving the conflict.
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All navy choices stay on the desk, regardless of a ceasefire in power since April 8 having paused the battle. Qatar’s Ministry of International Affairs on Tuesday cautioned in opposition to the potential of a “frozen battle”, the place the crucial waterway is used as a strain card amid the potential of violent flare-ups.
The US president has envisioned the potential of suspending a navy marketing campaign in opposition to Tehran whereas reserving the choice of finishing up focused strikes as wanted.
Within the absence of a everlasting deal that permits either side to assert victory, analysts say a low-intensity battle interspersed with periodic strikes provides a handy means out – albeit one which prolongs regional instability and world financial disruption.
The price of a ‘frozen’ conflict
The conflict between the US and Iran can already be described as “frozen”, however this no-war-no-deal situation comes at too excessive a price for each events, Mehran Kamrava, an knowledgeable on Iran at Georgetown College in Qatar, advised Al Jazeera.
“Iran can not afford to have its ports blocked indefinitely and neither can the US preserve an indefinite blockade of Iran,” Kamrava mentioned. “In the interim, we would see a short-term frozen battle, however this can not proceed for a number of months or years.”
The American overseas coverage suppose tank Quincy Institute estimated that Washington’s prices incurred over the primary month of the conflict had been between $20bn and $25bn. A big-scale floor operation in Iran just like that of Iraq in 2003 would require at the least 500,000 personnel and a few $55bn a month, or greater than $650bn a yr, and the suppose tank warns this is able to nonetheless be a big underestimate.
A continuation of the present state of affairs would subsequently have financial advantages within the quick time period, however a simmering battle, with no clear conclusion, would even be costly for the US – each economically and politically.
The US navy has imposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports and vessels since April 13. Final week, it deployed a 3rd plane provider strike group with 1000’s of elite troops, within the largest buildup because the invasion of Iraq in 2003. Greater than 10,000 US troops are estimated to have been deployed to the area.
Iran’s personal blockade of the Strait of Hormuz to ships not paying a toll has been felt within the US, the place the typical value of petrol on the pump has reached practically $4.18 a gallon ($1.10 a litre), the very best stage in practically 4 years. This comes prematurely of midterm elections in November, for which polls present Trump’s approval scores trending at a low 34 %, in contrast with 47 % when he took workplace for his second presidential time period in January 2025.
Iranian strikes have additionally brought about billions of {dollars} in harm to US navy belongings within the area and examined ties between Washington and its Gulf allies, which have seen main industrial and vitality websites hit by Iran, in addition to their reputations as secure havens for enterprise broken by the conflict.
Kamrava mentioned the US financial system would be capable to take in the financial shock attributable to the conflict. “Whether or not the American political system can afford it’s a totally different query,” he added.
Extended versus protracted battle
In Trump’s preliminary projection, the conflict in Iran was supposed to final “4 to 5 weeks”. Two months into the battle, Chandler Williams, researcher on the Peace Analysis Institute Oslo (PRIO), says the extended battle has lasted longer than forecast.
“When a state or a authorities depends closely on precision air strike energy, it usually causes escalation reasonably than decision as a result of it doesn’t enable for any off boards, and that’s what we’re seeing proper now,” Williams mentioned.
Whereas a protracted battle is often the product of miscalculation, a protracted one is stirred on by design. “The query now’s whether or not this extended battle is turning into a protracted one,” he added.
Washington is betting on sustained financial and diplomatic strain backed by Trump’s fixed risk to resume strikes to see if it could “end what air strikes alone can not obtain”, Williams mentioned.
For its half, Iran is conscious of the US’s navy superiority and has opted for leveraging the Strait of Hormuz till the US decides {that a} negotiated settlement is preferable. “Iran is betting that the US could not escalate any additional, however a really protracted battle could be tough to maintain in the long run,” he mentioned.
A report by the United Nations Improvement Programme (UNDP) earlier this month discovered the navy escalation to be affecting employment and livelihoods in Iran by disruptions to financial exercise, mobility, and provide chains.
A lot of Iran’s grain imports go by the Strait of Hormuz, a key world transport route for Tehran, as properly. Transport disruptions across the strait have raised issues about delays to grain shipments, the UNDP mentioned, tightening the home provide and rising meals insecurity dangers within the nation of 90 million folks.
“In Iran’s case, the calculus is about whether or not they can face up to that value whereas nonetheless inflicting the price of shutting down a good portion of the worldwide financial system, and if that helps them get to a greater deal on the negotiating desk,” Williams mentioned.
‘Mowing the grass’ in Iran
On Tuesday, the US Division of Protection requested $53.6bn for autonomous drones for the 2027 fiscal yr, a roughly 24,000 % enhance from final yr.
“If the ways of the battle shift in the direction of drone warfare and in the direction of a low-intensity battle, this has decrease prices for the attacker however the next impression for the recipient as we’ve seen within the battle between Ukraine and Russia,” Michael Kerr, a historian and political scientist at King’s Faculty London, advised Al Jazeera.
Israel, a US ally, has lengthy adopted a technique of attrition in its longstanding conflicts with Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Irreconcilable positions of either side have resulted in nominal ceasefire agreements which have finished little to curb navy flare-ups.
Israel has usually described its tactic of alternating intervals of quiet with occasional large-scale navy operations as “mowing the grass”. The US could decide for a similar method with Iran, leaving the area extremely unstable and shattering the Gulf states’ aspiration of renewed stability and financial prosperity.
In keeping with Kerr, the dangers incurred in utilizing this tactic with a state actor with Iran’s drone and missile capabilities are considerably greater. “Should you mow the grass [against Iran], what’s to cease Iran from hitting Qatar, the UAE, Kuwait and firing drones at American ships each time that occurs,” he mentioned.
Iran, the second-largest nation within the Center East, holds immense strategic significance as a result of its strategic positioning within the Gulf and the Sea of Oman. Kerr mentioned the West’s expectation that its regional and world ambitions could be “put again into the field by bombing” is destined to fail.
“The concept that Iran could be bombed to simply accept Israeli regional hegemony by US bombing – I don’t suppose it’s ever going to work.”
